Info on the low pressure systems to the north northeast of Rodrigues and in the vicinity of Agalega
Issued at 1400 hours on Tuesday 05 February 2019.
1. The tropical disturbance located far to the southwest of Diego Garcia intensified into a tropical depression during last night. At 1000 hours this morning it was centered at about 550 km to the north northeast of Rodrigues. This system will move in a general southwesterly direction at a speed of about 15 km/h, while continuing to intensify and becoming a moderate tropical storm by this evening. It will then be named FUNANI. The tropical storm is expected to recurve towards the south-east as from Wednesday 06 February 2019. On this trajectory the centre of the storm will approach Rodrigues and is likely to pass at about 160 km to the East Northeast of Rodrigues on Wednesday 06 February around mid-night.
2. Satellite observations shows that the low evolving in the vicinity of Agalega has also gained strength over the night. Latest numerical weather prediction models agree to intensify this system as well and it is very likely that it will reach the moderate tropical storm stage by tomorrow. It will then be named GELENA. The system will move slowly westward at first and then will move towards the south-east, accelerating towards Rodrigues as from Thursday 07 February 2019. This storm is likely to pass very close to both St Brandon and Rodrigues.
Weather at Rodrigues
Clouds associated with the storm are likely to influence the weather at Rodrigues as from Tuesday evening with passing showers. The wind will strengthen gradually as from Wednesday with gusts reaching 90 km/h. As the system continues to approach Rodrigues gusts will increase and become more frequent; there is a probability that cyclonic condition may be felt on Wednesday night.
The Island is likely to be hit a second time on Saturday 09 in the afternoon when cyclonic conditions will again prevail due to the passage of Gelena.
Weather at Mauritius
On the above scenario, the Island will not be directly affected by the first system. There are still some uncertainties as to the track of the second system and the weather at Mauritius may be influenced by its outer cloud bands as from Thursday evening.
NB. This forecast which is provided as a guideline is based on numerical models with lots of uncertainties. Therefore, there may be quite significant day to day variation.