Since last week, the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (a buffer zone where trade winds from the southern and northern hemisphere converge) flared up again.
This is the area where low pressure forms and under favourable environmental conditions may develop into tropical storm.
As from the end of last week at least two areas of low pressure could be located on the satellite imagery, namely one near Agalega and another one to the South East of Diego Garcia.
Latest satellite imagery indicates that the one far to the South East of Diego Garcia, near 13.0 degrees south and 69.5 degrees East has become the main centre of activity with a marked cyclonic circulation and an increased in convection. The numerical models do not agree on which one is going to be the main circulation and there are still lots of uncertainties regarding the trajectory and the evolution of intensity.
It is likely that the low to the South East of Diego Garcia may develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday 05 February 2019. The system will at first move towards the South West at a speed of about 12 km/h and then towards the South East as from Wednesday 06 February 2019 while gradually intensifying into a moderate tropical storm. It will then be named FUNANI. On this scenario, the system is likely to pass at about 200 km to the East North East of Rodrigues at it closest distance on Wednesday early evening.
Weather at Rodrigues
Clouds associated with the system are likely to influence the weather at Rodrigues as from Tuesday evening with passing showers. The wind will strengthen gradually as from Tuesday with gusts reaching 90 km/h when it will be at its closest distance on Wednesday evening. The sea will become rough to very rough.
Weather at Mauritius
On the above scenario, the Island will not be directly affected by this system. Clouds in the East South Easterly airstream will cross the Island giving passing showers as from Wednesday. The wind will be moderate and the sea will remain moderate becoming rough on Wednesday.
NB. This forecast which is provided as a guideline is based on numerical models which are showing a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, there may be quite significant day to day variation.